My Obsession with Overshoot
There is no other possible future than a regenerative one. This means that, rather than living off depletion and liquidation as we currently do, we will live off what the biosphere can renew. Because by definition, we cannot deplete forever, even if we want to.
The only question is how fast we get to a regenerative future. That is also at the core of the climate dilemma:
- Acting too slowly and letting climate change get the upper hand will destroy a good portion of the planet’s regenerative budget.
- Acting fast may take more short-term sweat but will leave humanity with more options, more biocapacity, and a bigger portion of non-stranded assets.
But overshoot is still defining our context
So far, humanity is riding the slow track, delaying its transformation to a regenerative culture, thereby favoring disaster over design as the transition strategy. The result is even more massive overshoot — human demand exceeding the regenerative capacity of our natural ecosystem — leaving even larger ecological debt.
Here are the numbers: From this January 1st until July 29th, humanity used as much from nature as the planet can renew this entire year. Hence July 29th was this year’s Earth Overshoot Day. And this may be an underestimate, because it is based on the National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts, which use about 15,000 data points per country and year, but still have significant holes. Nevertheless, they document that human demand currently exceeds what Earth renews by at least 73%.
In contrast, if we want to maintain some good portion of our existing biodiversity, humanity may not want to usurp all of it. Professor E.O. Wilson suggests to just use half the planet’s capacity, which might give us a chance to maintain 85% of the planet’s biodiversity. From a regenerative perspective, this means that the current human metabolism is more than three times larger than the Earth's ecologically safe limits (1.73 Earths / ½ Earth = 3.46).
Overshoot is the underlying cause of most environmental ills — from biodiversity loss to deforestation, water and air pollution, fisheries collapse, and greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere — leading to ever wilder weather patterns. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2021 considers seven out of the top 10 likely and impactful risks to be environmental (or nine of the top 10 if “infectious diseases” are also categorized as environmental).
Human demand persistently overwhelming the biosphere may well be the second most severe challenge humanity is facing in the 21st century. It is the biological (not the non-renewable) resources that are most limiting to the human enterprise. For instance, while fossil fuel underground is limited, even more limiting is how much can be burnt without runaway climate change — and that again is limited by how much of the excess carbon the biosphere can remove. Similar for minerals. It is the energy that limits digging deeper mines and concentrating dispersed ores; and energy is ultimately most limited by biocapacity.
The biggest risk of all
The risks imposed by overshoot are topped only by one other risk: that of not responding. Tragically, most cities, corporations, or countries — including Switzerland, my native land — fall into this category. Their lack of response makes it unlikely that each one of them will be prepared in time for the challenges associated with persistent overshoot.
The National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts, which are used to determine Earth Overshoot Day, show that the residents of Switzerland use 4.4 times more from nature than Swiss ecosystems can renew. It is like using 4.4 “Switzerlands”.
Switzerland has financial capacity to shield itself. But 72% of the world population now lives in countries that have both an ecological deficit and less then world average income, which makes it unlikely they can compete for the needed resources on international markets. Yet, the overshoot option is time-limited. Even for Switzerland.
It is unclear whether Switzerland has the resolve to prepare itself adequately for the predictable future of climate change and resource constraints that overshoot inevitably entails, particularly after Swiss voters rejected the proposed CO2 law in June. While good efforts exist in Switzerland, such as boosting thermal efficiency of houses or using electricity from hydropower, the country overall is still far from being fit to operate in a world of increasing climate change and resource constraints.
Waiting is of no benefit
Most importantly, addressing climate is not just a noble cause. In fact, there is no advantage for cities, companies, or countries to wait addressing climate or overshoot risks.
Plenty of opportunities exist that can decrease overshoot — actions that are economically viable. To demonstrate this, Global Footprint Network is showcasing 100 Days of Possibility. For 100 days, from Earth Overshoot Day 2021 to COP26, we are offering numerous ways that each country, city, or business can #MoveTheDate and ready themselves for a world increasingly defined by global ecological overshoot, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource constraints.
Because waiting keeps them unprepared for a future that has never been more predictable: one of more climate change and fewer resources — one that also will inevitably be fossil fuel-free.
Photo: Robert Wallace on Flickr. The image is unaltered following license terms.
About the Author:
Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D.
Founder & President, Global Footprint Network
ISSP Sustainability Hall of Fame Honoree
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